Thursday, December 25, 2008

Rumour or Satyam (Hindi: Truth)


Ever since my last post on Agency Problem at Satyam, things have unfolded in quite an unexpected way at Satyam. We have seen many rumours going around the market, only few of which can stand the veracity test.

The first was regarding the allegation that Mendu Rammohan Rao, dean of the Indian School of Business, one of the independent directors of Satyam, was not consulted before calling off the Maytas acquisition. This issue raises questions on the corporate governance followed at the leading IT company of India.

To placate the investors and regain the lost trust, Satyam announced that it will consider issue of dividends to the shareholders. There was also the news of a possible buyback of shares. Both of these proposals will be decided upon during the board meeting on 29th December. If we look the comparative figure of the dividend history of top Indian IT companies like Infosys, Wipro and TCS, alongside that of Satyam, the observation that strikes us is that Satyam has never been a huge dividend distributor. Its dividend rate has been a flat 175% in the last few years.

(Source: Capitaline database)
Click on image to enlarge

Thus as expected, the market and Satyam's shareholders were not enthused with this new gimmic and its scrip continued its fall southwards.

(Source of data: Bloomberg)
Click on image to enlarge

As if this was not enough, we had rumours of the Chairman and Founder, B Ramalinga Raju, resigning from the board. Though later it was passed off as baseless. But, one issue did raise its head due to the spread of this rumour. Unlike its competitors Infosys and Wipro, Satyam has not groomed any future leader who can replace Raju in case of his retirement or resignation. So, the talk of the need of a succession plan will keep making rounds of the town, for the time to come. Speculation was also rife that Wipro Technologies might acquire Satyam, that was later denied by both the companies.

And then came the worst of them all, but this time it was no rumour ! The World Bank had barred Satyam Computer Services from doing any businesswith it for the next eight years. During the last five years, the World Bank had paid Satyam hundreds of millions of dollars for its global IT maintenance and service. There was a slew of rumours this time, as to the actual reason of this harsh action. But, as is clear from the World Bank group statement, Satyam was debarred for providing improper benefits to Bank staff (i.e. Bribery) and for failing to maintain proper documentation. The bank also verified that Satyam was not involved in malicious attacks on the Bank’s information systems, as was rumoured. So, for now the one-week high powered drama seems to have subsided, but what took 22 years to build was surely dented in a few days time.

The World Bank Group Statement on Debarment of Satyam
(Copyright image)

Click on image to enlarge

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Countries in Recession


(Copyright image)
Click on image to enlarge


Recession, the technical name given to two consecutive quarters of negative growth for any country, is looming over the world like a sinister scarecrow. Economists say that economic activity has its own regular ups and downs, with a regular pattern of economic expansion, also called Recovery and economic contraction, infamously known as Recession. They also state that it is a cyclical phenomena, and give it another name: Business Cycle. So what causes this recession and what are its ramifications?

The causes of recession are wide and sometimes unexplained. But the main reasons can be listed as:

1. Decrease in the consumption by the public, mainly due to low consumer confidence (Paradox of Thrift)
2. Decrease in investment by the Government, to control rising budget deficit
3. Decrease in investment by the Companies
4. Less demand of goods in the foreign market, more important for export-oriented countries
5. Bubble busts, like the dot-com bust of 2000 and housing-bubble bust of 2008
6. Some other politico-economic causes like currency crisis, war, etc.
For a more detailed explanation of causes of recession, refer this page.

The fallouts during and after recession can have far reaching effects, mainly categorized under political, economic, social and technological effects: (Some of them might refer to controversial events)

Political

Loss of people’s faith in the ruling party

Failure of International Organisations, like the League of Nations

Government changes in the ailing countries

Setback to Climate change talks & treaties

Rise of extreme nationalism and protectionism

Economic

Rise in Unemployment

Increase in bankruptcy

Disinflation

Banks’ willingness to lend decreases

Failure of Stock Markets

Lower interest rates

Increased monopoly in the market

Fall in productive capacity of the economy

Social

Rise in criminal/illegal activities

Less expenditure on welfare activities

Pessimism rises leading to fall in birth-rate and increased suicides

Rise of a new class in the society: formerly middle class

Technological

Less spending in new and breakthrough research areas

Investment in green technology reduces

Evolution of innovative and cost-effective technology



As of today, most of the major economies of the world are witnessing negative growth. The following table highlights the countries in recession and their GDP as a % of the World GDP:

Countries in Recession

GDP (nominal) as a % of World GDP



USA

25.30

Japan

8.02

Germany

6.08

Italy

3.86

Sweden

0.83

Denmark

0.57

Ireland

0.48

Hong Kong

0.38

Singapore

0.29

New Zealand

0.24

Latvia

0.05

Estonia

0.04

Source: IMF

USA, the largest economy, has witnessed a dip in its growth in the last quarter, with sharp rise in unemployment.

According to National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent research organization, US has been in recession throughout this year. A recent release on its website states that Real GDP of United States decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 % in the third quarter of 2008. This is attributed to decrease in consumer confidence, leading to less consumer spending. Other factors like negative contributions from the residential fixed investment and equipment and software are cited as the reasons of this slowdown. A list of all US business cycles can be found here.


Friday, December 19, 2008

The rising star of Indian Banking- Chanda Kochhar to be the next CEO of ICICI


Chanda D. Kochhar, has been named as the next CEO and MD of ICICI Bank, the largest private bank in India. She will take over its reins from Mr. K V Kamath, the larger than life figure, on 1st May 2009. Her term will last till 31st March 2014, under normal circumstances. Presented below is a brief timeline of her journey from Jodhpur to the the most coveted post:

1961

Born at Jodhpur, Rajasthan

1982

Graduated from JaiHind College as a Bachelors Degree in Arts (Economics)

1984

MMS (Finance) from the JBIMS, Mumbai; Joined ICICI as Management Trainee

1993

Part of the core team to set up ICICI as a commercial bank

1994

Promoted to Assistant General Manager

1996

Promoted to Deputy General Manager

1998

Promoted to General Manager and Head of the Major Clients Group

2000

Led ICICI Bank's entry in the Retail Banking business

2001

Took over as Executive Director

2006

Appointed as Deputy Managing Director of ICICI Bank

2008

Named the next CEO of ICICI


Chanda Kochhar started her career with ICICI in 1984, and rose to phenomenal heights, jumping from one responsibility to another. She is the CFO and Joint MD of the bank. She has been the Head of International Banking Arm, the Executive Director of Retail Banking Business, the Executive Director and Vice Chairman (ICICI Bank Canada Ltd) in the past. She has worked in various capacities since she joined as a Management Trainee. This is one of the causes of the faith the management has in her.
Ms. Chanda has been a topper since her college times. She topped her batch at JBIMS and received the Wockhardt Gold Medal for Excellence in Management Studies. She also received the J. N. Bose Gold Medal of the ICWAI (Institute of Cost and Works accounts of India). Her quest of excellence reflects in the various responsibilities she has fulfilled at ICICI.
Looking ahead at the challenges she will face and will have to meet head on, we have the declining market share of the largest private bank. The deposits of ICICI grew at just 6% this year, as compared to its close competitors like HDFC and Axis Bank. Even the interest income has been sluggish as compared to its competitors.
Another matter that needs attention is the rising Non Performing Assets (NPA) in the wake of the financial crisis in the banking-sector the world over. The percentage of Net Non-Performing Assets to Net Advance of ICICI has been increasing year on year since 2006. This sends the wrong signal to the investor and depositor community that the quality of borrowing and investment is being overlooked for an increase in profitability and market share.

(Source: Company Balance Sheets at Capitaline Databases)

Last but not the least, she will have to continue to reach out to the people in order to placate the uncertainty amidst the looming economic slowdown. We hope she stands by her saying: "One should not take challenge as a scare. Leadership capabilities and strength of an organization are best tested in challenging times."

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